SPEECH, &'c.

THE paragraph in his majesty's speech which has been referred to this committee,* has already announced to us, and to the publick, the most welcome intelligence which it was possible for us to receive. It has raised the pleasing expectation, that, after all the difficulties with which we have struggled, the period is at length arrived, when, by the flourishing state of our finances, we may be enabled to enter on a system which will afford immediate and substantial relief to a large proportion of our constituents, and at the same time give additional security and effect to that important, and, I trust, inviolable system which has been adopted for the reduction of the national debt.

In procceding to detail the measures which I shall propose with a view to these important objects, I shall consider it as my first and most indispensable duty to state, as distinctly as possible, every circumstance

"It will, I am persuaded, give you great satisfaction to learn, that the extraordinary expenses incurred in the course of the last year have, in a great measure, been already de frayed by the grants of the session. The state of our resources will. I trust, be found more than sufficient to provide for the remaining part of these expenses, as well as for the current service of the year, the estimates for which I have directed to be laid before you.

"I entertain the pleasing hope, that the reductions which may be found practicable in the establishments, and the continued increase in the revenue, will enable you, after making due provision for the several branches of the publick service, to enter upon a system of gradually relieving my subjects from some part of the existing taxes; at the same time giving additional efficacy to the plan for the reduction of the national debt on the success of which our future ease and security essentially depend.

"With a view to this important object, let me also recom mend it to you to turn your attention to the consideration of such measures as the state of the funds and of publick credit may render practicable and expedient, towards a reduction in the rate of interest of any of the annuities which are now redeemable."

which can be necessary for enabling all who hear me, not only to form a satisfactory judgment on the general result of our situation, but to examine the various calculations and reasonings on which that result is founded; and in attempting to execute so extensive a task, it is no small relief to my mind to reflect, that the repeated discussions which have taken place on questions of finance, have rendered them, in a great degree, familiar to the house and to the publick; and that, by the measures which have been adopted for simplifying the nature and form of the publick accounts, they are at length freed from that obscurity and intricacy in which they were formerly involved; and are rendered so clear and intelligible, that there is no man who may not, with a small degree of attention, become as fully master of the subject, as those whose official duty has led them to make it their peculiar study.

The first point, to which I wish to call the attention of the committee, is the amount of what may be considered as the probable future income of the country; and I will begin by recapitulating the result of the accounts for different years, which have been already stated. The produce of the permanent taxes in the last year, from the 5th of January, 1791, to the 5th of January, 1792, appears to have been 14,132,0001.; which, with the addition of 2,558,000l. (being the average amount of the annual duties on land and malt, as stated by the select committee last year) would make the total revenue of the year 16,690,000l. To this there must be added a sum, which, in the accounts on the table, has been included in the produce of the separate and temporary taxes imposed last year, for the purpose of defraying the expense of the Spanish armament, but which, in fact makes part of the general and permanent revenue. It will be recollected that an addition was made last year to the duties on bills and receipts, and the addition was consolidated with the old duty. The whole of this consolidated duty has been carried to the account of the separate fund; but only the excess beyond the

former produce can be considered as arising from the additional duty; and a sum equal to the former produce, being about 40,0001. is to be added to the other sums which I have stated, making the total revenue for the last year 16,730,0001.

The produce of the year preceding was 16,437,0001. after deducting the produce of a fifty-third week, which was included in the account of that year.

The principal branches of the revenue being paid from the respective offices into the exchequer, by weekly payments, on a stated day, a fifty-third weekly payment in the course of a year, recurs nearly in the proportion of once in every period of six years. In judging therefore of the probable future amount of the revenue, the produce of the fifty-third week ought not to be included in any one particular year, and it is therefore here deducted: but, on the other hand, one-sixth part of its amount, being about 32,0001. ought to be added to the average formed on any number of years. The average formed on the two last years, without this addition, would be 16,583,0001. and with it 16,615,000l.

The produce of the year ending on the 5th of January, 1790, was 15,991,000l. and the average of the last three years (making the same allowance for the fifty-third week) amounts to 16,418,0001.

If we look back still one year further, the produce of the year ending the 5th of January, 1789, was 15,565,000l. and the average formed on the last four years, amounts to 16,212,0001.

It appears therefore that the actual produce of the year 1791, being 16,730,000l. exceeds by above 500,0001. the average formed on the last four years; that it exceeds the average formed on the last two years by above 100,0001.-the average on the last three years by nearly 300,0001. and the actual produce of the last year but one, by nearly the same

Sum.

If then I form my calculation of our future revenue, not on the separate amount of any one of these particular years, but upon the average amount of four

years, during which there has been a constant increase, I am certainly not attempting to lead you into too favourable an opinion; but I am rather wishing to recommend that degree of caution, which the importance of the subject always deserves, and particularly at the present moment, when we are holding out hopes of relief, in which, above all things, we should be careful to avoid the chance of disappointment. I propose therefore to rest my computation upon this average produce of four years, being 16,212,0001. and this sum, on a general view of the subject, we may safely assume, as not being likely to exceed the permanent annual revenue of the country.

I shall next desire the committee to compare the statement of the annual revenue, with that of the permanent annual expenditure; and I shall take as the basis of this comparison, the estimates contained in the report of the committee appointed in the last session to examine the publick income and expenditure, only making such corrections as arise from certain additions on the one hand, and reductions on the other, · which at that time were not foreseen. The whole permanent expenditure as stated by the committee, (including therein the interest of the national debt, the million annually issued for the reduction of debt, the civil list, and all the permanent charges on the consolidated fund, as well as all the establishments which are annually voted) is 15,969,000l. to which there was added in the course of the last session (but subsequent to the report of the committee) the sum of 12,000l. charged on the consolidated fund, for the establishment of his royal highness the duke of Clarence; and a further sum of about 12,0001. for defraying the expense of the separate government of the province of Upper Canada. Besides this, some further provision will be necessary for the establishment of his royal highness the duke of York, on the happy event of his marriage; and this may probably occasion an addition of 18,0001.

The amount of these additional charges is 42,0001.

I have next to state those reductions which, as far as we can at present judge, may be expected to take place in our permanent establishments, although they cannot operate to their full extent in the present year. The first article of reductions is under the head of the naval service, in which I am inclined to hope that the number of seamen may be reduced to 16,000, being 2,000 less than last year. This will produce a saving of 104,000l. and a further saving of about 10,000l. may probably be made in the estimate for the works to be carried on in the dock-yards.

In the actual establishment of the army (after allowing for the proposed additions, which were explained when the army estimate was voted) there may probably be a diminution of about 50,0001.; and 36,0001. will be saved in consequence of the expiration of the treaty for the Hessian subsidy, which, under the present circumstances, his Majesty has not thought it necessary to renew.

If, therefore, allowance is made on the one hand for the addition of 42,000l. and for the reductions in the army and navy, amounting together to about 200,0001. the estimate of the permanent annual expenditure will stand at 15,811,000l.; the amount of the income of the last year, as I have before stated it, exceeds this sum by 919,000l.; the average of the amount of the two last years exceeds it by 804,000l.; the average of the three years by 607,000l.; and that of the four years on which I rest my calculations, by 401,0001. This then is the comparative view which I take of the permanent income, and the permanent expenditure; and, according to the lowest of these calculations, there remains a disposable annual surplus of about 400,000l. after defraying the expense of all the establishments, and applying the annual million to the. reduction of the publick debt.

Before I submit to the committee the manner in which I would propose to distribute this surplus in future, I wish to advert to the supply, and ways and means for the present year, because in these there will be found some additional articles both of expen