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To what extent Turkish support would avail us in the Soudan and Egypt I am not prepared even to hazard a conjecture, and doubt greatly whether anyone knows much as to the feelings of the Mahdi's followers: they have certainly no reason to love the Turk, and their prophet, apparently, denies the Sultan's right to the Caliphate, and denounces him as an impostor, a usurper, and a Laodicean.

So much for the advantages to be gained by a Turkish alliance: let us now look at the other side of the picture.

First and foremost, in certainty though not in importance, is the question of pounds, shillings, and pence; if we know nothing else, of this at least we are well assured, that a Turkish alliance must be an expensive luxury; the Sultan may be the greatest, wisest, best of monarchs; his legions may be as the sand on the sea-shore for multitude, and bold as lions, but the Imperial treasury is as empty as Mother Hubbard's cupboard.

During the Russian war, when the Turks were fighting against a hated invader and the foe was at their very gates, the men put up with scanty rations and no pay, but their patience was tried to the utmost, and when they were turned adrift, after the war, in rags and all but penniless, to find their way home as best they could, they felt and spoke bitterly enough of the treatment they had received. One man made me a handsome offer of his three years' pay in arrears for a medjidie (three shillings and fourpence) in hard cash, while others vowed that, come what might, they would never go to the wars again.

All these grievances might be forgotten if the country were once more invaded by the infidel, and these brave fellows might again turn out in defence of hearth and home, taking their chance of semistarvation as being all in the day's work; but, if they were called on to fight on behalf of Great Britain, they would certainly expect to be treated as became the allies of the wealthiest nation in the world, and, to supply their wants, English gold would have to flow like water.

The next disadvantage of the proposed alliance is that, whether it brought a strong force to our aid or not, it would certainly array against us all the enemies of Turkey, whose name is legion.

Without pretending to any special knowledge of the present state of Eastern Europe, I may venture to prophesy that the first shot fired by a Turkish soldier against a Russian would call to arms nearly all the Christian nationalities which have been, or still are, under the Turkish yoke.

Eastern Roumelia and Macedonia would be in a blaze; the warlike clans of Albania and Montenegro would pour down from their mountains, and the armies of Bulgaria and Servia, numbering some 120,000 men, would be set in motion, while it is more than probable that Roumania would back them up with another force of equal strength.

Greece might possibly be kept quiet by our influence, but should

she join in the fray, yet another army of 70,000 or 80,000 soldiers would be thrown into the scale against us.

Supposing, however, that fortune favoured us on every occasion, and that the campaign was one long series of victories; that the Russians were smitten, hip and thigh, and that all the smaller nationalities that had ventured to oppose us were driven to sue for peace, what then would be our position, and what reward would our brave ally require at our hands? Surely the very least the Sultan would demand, in return for all the sacrifices he had made, would be the recovery of a portion, if not of all, the territory which had been wrested from him after the disastrous campaigns of 1877-78; he would, moreover, consider us bound to assist him in retaining his hold. on those lands.

England would then have to choose between defrauding her faithful ally of the rightful spoils of war, and trampling the Christian nationalities into the dust and handing them over to the tender mercies of their old oppressors.

Either course would lower us in the eyes of Europe, while the whole Mohammedan world would glorify our ally. "Ul-humd-ul-illah," the Commander of the Faithful, is ever victorious; the Ingleez may rest in safety under the shadow of his sword.'

J. PICTON WARLOW,

late Military Vice-Consul in Anatolia.

VOL. XVII.-No. 98.

RR

A SCHEME FOR IMPERIAL FEDERATION.

THE importance of the question of Imperial Federation as regards England's future history is now beginning to secure that public recognition which its practical bearing on our relations with other great powers demands.

When our colonies, at a crisis in our military operations' in the Soudan, nobly and generously came forward to offer their men and their means to assist the mother-country when she seemed to need assistance, a step was taken which has done more to make possible the permanent maintenance of the union between England and her colonies by some form of Federation than anything that has yet taken place in connection with this question.

This spontaneous action on the part of the colonies took place at a time when it was least to be expected, and after one great and important group had reason to complain of the neglect by the Colonial Minister to comply with their reasonable request, concerning a subject to which with good reason they attached the greatest importance— the request that the unoccupied islands close to their shores should be secured by annexation, that they might be kept free from the possibility of being taken possession of by other nations and converted into convict settlements to pollute their shores, besides becoming hostile ports, should war occur with the power which should occupy them.

Although bitterly disappointed with the want of consideration shown towards their most earnest desires and urgent requests, the Australian colonists have shown that their loyalty to the Crown and to the Empire was not affected by this inconsiderate treatment, but that they recognise the fact that they are fellow-subjects of our beloved Queen, and feel the obligation as such to maintain the power and prestige of our common nationality; and although the assistance offered, as regards numbers, was not great, the fact was of infinite. importance. And foreign nations felt and acknowledged a new departure in the step taken. In future an enemy of England will have to deal with the rising nationalities amongst England's offspring, with Canada, with Australia, with India, and with South Africa-that Greater Britain beyond the seas whose people now assert the right to make the quarrels of the mother-country their own, and their earnest

desire to show this to the enemies of the Empire and to the world, in the most practical way which lies in their power.

There is in these offers a deeper significance than the mere fact of their sending a few battalions to fight for the Queen in the Soudan. The rapid growth of our colonial possessions in population, wealth, and commercial intercourse, shadows forth a future greatness which at present we can scarcely over-estimate; and if the present power of the colonies to help the mother-country be worthy of consideration, how infinitely greater will be the value of that assistance when the population of those colonies of European descent increases, as it certainly will, until that of one group alone may be double the population of the United Kingdom, and this within the lifetime of some now amongst us.

If we take the figures given in the Statesman's Year-Book, we shall find that the English race at the beginning of the present century in all parts of the world, including the United States of America, numbered about twenty millions of people. At the present time they number about ninety-four millions, including the European emigrants to the United States and to the English colonies, but excluding the negroes in the United States and native races in our colonies.

Should this rate of increase, which is about 21 per cent. each decade, continue for another hundred years, which there is every reason to expect, the English race will at that time number 600,000,000, or about one-half of the present population of the world; and in two hundred years will number 4,000,000,000 of people. Of this number at each period one-half will probably be under the British flag, because England possesses in her dominions in Canada, South Africa, and Australia, in the temperate zone, abundant room for the overflowing population not only of the United Kingdom, but of all the other countries of Europe, which have in the past, and will continue in the future to contribute to the increase of the English race in their colonies, so long as those colonies present attractive fields for emigration.

With the enormous area of the Australasian colonies, consisting of three millions of square miles with at present a population of only one person to the square mile, there is room enough for the surplus population of Europe for many generations to come. Even with the moderate population of Germany, which has 216 persons to the square mile, or France with 184 persons, the Australian colonies might not be overpopulated while maintaining 500 to 600 millions of people; and Canada is still larger in area.

Belgium is the most densely peopled of European nations, with 486 persons to the square mile, while England follows closely with 445 to the square mile, and her population is still increasing steadily.

When we consider the grand future to which the nation may look

forward, and the possibilities of growth and expansion which seem certain, it is surely wise to consider in time what our future position as a nation is likely to be. Are we to allow our great colonies to drift away from us and become independent nations like the United States, or should we strive to permanently maintain the union which promises such future greatness? As a mercantile nation, is it not of consequence, when we find our products gradually being shut out of foreign ports, to secure our future trade with our colonies, where it is so rapidly increasing? Even if we now pay some colonial import duties on our productions, we can judge by the practice of the United States how those might be increased and multiplied if our colonies were to become independent.

In the world's future, great empires seem fated to take the place of the smaller states of to-day. America and Russia threaten to dwarf the smaller European states, and Germany will probably expand by absorption or conquest of her smaller neighbours, while England has only to wait the growth of her own people in her own territories, to bind them to her side in closer ties, and she need fear no rival.

The time is now most opportune to consider the question of the consolidation of the Empire. The colonies are still passionately loyal, and are desirous of a closer and more permanent union with the mother-country. An extension of the franchise has been recently granted, to include two millions of new electors. This measure will lead to further legislation of a more democratic character, and doubtless before long to a universal extension of this privilege, and thus give greater power to a class who do not view with favour the idea of the hereditary right of another class in the community to legislate for the nation.

Before the loyalty of our colonies grows cold in a new generation, having necessarily fewer sympathies in common with England, and before the advent to power of the least educated of the people, it is wise fully to consider the splendid opportunity that now offers itself, and to lay wide and deep the foundations of the extended Empire of the future.

The Imperial Federation League has endeavoured with considerable success to awaken an interest in the public mind towards this most important question. Hitherto they have abstained, and perhaps wisely, from putting forward any definite scheme by which the object which they desire may best be attained, and while some of their members and their chairman, the Right Hon. W. E. Forster, have published their individual opinions on the question, the League itself has not yet adopted any scheme which they are prepared to advocate.

The time has now come, however, when a more definite position must be taken up. They must know their own minds if they hope to influence public opinion, and some proposition as to how Imperial

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