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ignorant dogmatism, with arrogance, and even with vulgar insolence, Liberalism has eagerly answered these aspirations before it heard them. Perhaps it is better so: for its past depreciation of our Colonies, its objection to any looking at the Empire as a unity, its bitterly expressed hatred of an imperial policy,' its way of regarding foreigners as always in the right and England as always in the wrong, its readiness to accept the relative decline of this country and future greatness of America, and, not less, the coldness or active opposition offered in past years by some of its leading men to the whole beneficent course of factory legislation-all prove that this great cause of the people could, under no circumstances, have been safe in the hands of the Liberal party.

And yet I trust and believe that it will not be taken up precipitately by the Conservative leaders, nor ever for mere party ends: they have practised hitherto a wise reserve; let them continue it till the movement has been cleared by the full discussion of points which are yet imperfectly understood by many—and till the growth of popular feeling shall have declared itself in terms which cannot be mistaken.

But the duty to watch and obey this new force, and to lead it to victory, is unquestionably theirs; for it is no less truly conservative than democratic. Wherever it moves in the heart of a working-man, it deepens his love of country, his loyalty to his sovereign as the bond of union with all his fellow-citizens, and his unselfish desire that his own prosperity may never be enjoyed at the expense of adversity or suffering on the part of any of them. It makes him feel a new cheerfulness and courage in his daily labour-a new joy as he looks into the faces of his children-a new confidence in that unseen future of which they are the heirs.

To understand and give effect to these sentiments is the high duty of Conservative statesmen. I know not what might be the result to our political parties-for these questions are above all party lines, and their successful treatment would sweeten political feeling in England, by fixing men's minds on great and common interests; but I know, and am sure, that the accomplishment of this great work would knit closer the hearts of all Englishmen to one another for ages to come, and establish the unity of an Empire mighty to bless and safeguard its own industrious people, and to help forward the peace and civilisation of the world.

W. FARRER ECROYD.

THE PROPOSALS OF THE FAIR TRADE

LEAGUE.

Ir is an old saying that if the causes and extent of an evil are known, it is half cured. Certainly when the causes and extent of the present depression in trade are thoroughly understood and properly appreciated, if the depression does not disappear, the fallacies of the past which are being furbished up and hawked about as remedies will be exploded. That trade has been and is still far from brisk in many branches is undeniable. For five years decreasing returns and falling prices were the order of the day. During the last eighteen months the condition of things has improved, but the export returns are still below those of the prosperous times of 1872-4. Prices are still low and profits meagre. What is the cause of it? Is England being beaten in the markets of the world? Are other nations supplying themselves and others too, while we go on from bad to worse and stand by and see them do it? Or, are we holding our own in the struggle for commercial supremacy, and is there some other explanation of the depression under which we are suffering?

A brief statement of facts will facilitate a due appreciation of the truth. The following is the total amount of our exports each year during the last fifteen years:

It will be seen that the tide has turned; that our exports last year have only been exceeded in value in three previous years, and those the three most prosperous years the country has ever known, viz. 1872-4. The prosperity of 1871-4 was special, and to some extent unhealthy, and the comparative stagnation which followed was the relapse resulting from it. The demand for goods in those years was great everywhere, and speculation ran rife and increased it.

The Franco-Prussian war had ceased, and in France property which had been injured or destroyed had to be replaced or made good; while the Germans, elated with victory, and temporarily flush of money in consequence of the 200,000,000l. indemnity paid to them by the French, purchased and speculated freely. America had recovered from the withering influence of her Civil War and the unrest and discussion which succeeded it, and had turned her attention to the development of her magnificent resources. Capital was invested, land was brought into cultivation, and railways were constructed. English capitalists lent money abroad freely. Foreign States negotiated loans, and foreign companies were floated. All this meant expenditure and a great rush of business; a great demand for goods and high prices. The demand and the prices stimulated the erection of new works, the sinking of new mines, and the extension of old ones. This, again, increased the demand for goods and labour, and stimulated trade for the time being. It was, however, largely based on an abnormal condition of things, and eventually the relapse came. The extra demand ceased. In France the damage done to property was repaired, and then the people had to be economical and set themselves to recover the loss they had sustained. In Germany the 200,000,000l. was expended, and the works and plant which had been erected to supply the demand caused were without employment. In America more ground was opened up and more railways were constructed than could be profitably employed. Extension ceased, and depression set in. In the countries to which British capital had been lent it was expended, and in many cases the investments turned out utterly worthless. Further advances ceased, and new loans could not be negotiated. The demand for the class of goods which had been purchased with these investments fell off. Throughout the world speculation was at an end, and depression prevailed. The demand for goods had been greater than the supply. Now the means of production exceeded the capacity of the people to purchase. At once the competition for the demand which remained became excessively keen, and prices fell with unprecedented rapidity until the weakest went to the wall, and demand and supply began to balance each other once more. England being the largest manufacturing nation, the demand for our goods was great, and corresponding preparations were made for meeting it. When the collapse came we felt it severely.

The relapse from marvellous prosperity to even the same bulk of trade as prevailed before was, of course, excessively trying, but a thoughtful examination of our present commercial position will show that there is really no cause for undue anxiety in reference to our foreign trade, or our supremacy as a manufacturing nation. In 1870 -the year prior to the extraordinary spurt our exports were 244,080,5777.; last year they were 286,414,4667., showing a bonâ fide increase of 42,333,8891. in the ten years. Even in 1878, when our

exports reached their lowest point, the difference between them then and in 1872 was more one of price than of quantity; and now, although their value is still less than it was in 1872-3, the quantity of goods exported is really greater. The following table, showing the most important classes of goods in which there has been an increase in the quantity exported, will be of interest :

In worsted stuffs and linen goods alone of our staple trades, has there

been a decrease in quantity.

The extent to which prices have fallen may be gathered from the following illustrations :

That is to say, while in 1880 we exported nearly half as much more alkali than we did in 1873, we got 500,000l. less for it. We exported 958 million yards more of cotton goods, and got a mere trifle more for them. We exported 835,000 tons more of iron and steel goods,

and got 9,000,000l. less for them. And so on; the list might be continued through the greater part of the goods we send abroad. The prices in 1872-3 were excessively high; now they are excessively low. When, therefore, we see that the total value of our exports last year was only about 10 per cent. less than in the palmiest days of prosperity, and we find that prices averaged 25 per cent. less, we may be satisfied that in quantity our trade has not suffered.

It is especially encouraging to find that our total exports have increased in bulk when we remember that one or two countries, with which we formerly did a large trade, have during recent years practically prohibited many of our goods by imposing heavy duties, and that other countries only bought from us with money that we lent them, and that, as we have ceased to lend, they have ceased to buy. The decrease in our exports to these countries was as follows, comparing 1872 with 1880:

The decrease in our export trade to all the world between 1872 and 1880 was only 28,174,3681. So that the decrease to these countries was 17,748,454l. more than the total decrease, which of course implies that so much of what has been lost there has been made up by our increased exports elsewhere. The decrease to the countries named is easily explained. The decrease to Germany and Holland is due to the heavy tariff which Germany has recently imposed. A considerable portion of English exports go to Germany through Holland, and appear in our Government returns as exports to Holland. The value of the goods imported from us by Holland for home consumption was rather more in 1880 than in 1872. The decrease in the gross is the decrease in what went through to Germany. Germany is buying less coal, iron, machinery, and cotton and woollen goods from every one than she did formerly. Canada and the United States have also imposed heavy duties on all imported goods. Egypt, New Granada, Uruguay, and the Argentine Republic are defaulting borrowers. Chili and Peru have been at war with each other, and have bought little from any one. So that even in the case of these countries where we have done less trade, and where the decrease more than accounts for the total difference between last year and our most prosperous times, we have not been beaten by outsiders who have gone in and supplanted us. No one else has got our trade. The people are either supplying themselves or doing without the goods. In neutral markets our supremacy is untouched.