gold exported was in 1874, 1,500,000l. ; in 1875, 1,400,000l.; in 1876, 1,268,599l.; in 1877, 1,476,312l.; and in 1878, 1,244,1927.

The following table, prepared from the very careful calculations of M. Soetbeer, shows the progressive decline of the total production of gold in Australia, which has fallen to the half of what it was twenty

The exportations of metal to England have diminished still more rapidly and more abruptly. This seems to prove that Australia absorbs the metal, partly for her home circulation, and partly for her direct commerce with the Indies, China, and Japan. From 1871 to 1875 England received from Australia an average each year of 7,097,800l. of gold; in 1878, 5,680,000l.; in 1879 only 3,180,600l. ; and in 1880, 3,614,200l. These are the actual facts, and they are not reassuring for the future. Certain mineralogists, as, for example, G. Ulrich of Dunedin in New Zealand, Director of the Mining Department of Sydney, do not share the gloomy forebodings of Dr. Suess. After all, they say, if the production of gold diminishes in Australia, it is not for lack of metal, but because the workmen prefer to buy the land for agricultural purposes, or for the rearing of cattle. So it is, but that is precisely what Dr. Suess affirms. When the goldfields are exhausted, it is necessary to excavate the veins, and then the work generally ceases to be remunerative, though some continue to work for a time, encouraged by the exceptional success of some miners. Hope and the gambling fever stimulate them to work at a loss, but at length they become discouraged and stop. According to M. Del Mar, on an average, each dollar drawn from the earth costs two.

Australia still supports herself by the goldfields and the deep leads; but when the miner shall be reduced to the quartz reefs,' the produce will certainly be reduced to one half. M. Ulrich himself, notwithstanding his sanguine views, admits that Victoria will fall to 600,000 ounces-that is, to half of what she has recently produced. It is estimated that Australia has supplied 260,000,000l. sterling in gold to the world.

The reader will, no doubt, have been fatigued with the uniformity of these details, but it is in that that the instruction consists. It is this identical repetition of the same facts which enables Dr. Suess to predict that the production of gold is fatally destined to decrease.

He admits that one may perhaps still discover, in the less explored regions of the Rocky Mountains of Central Africa, or in Australia, goldfields as rich as those of California, or veins as marvellous as the Comstock Lode; but the more powerful our present process of working, the more rapid the exhaustion of the new mines. It has been so in the past, and it will not be otherwise in the future.

From all these facts Dr. Suess concludes that the desire to make everywhere gold the only coinage, to the exclusion of silver, is pure madness. Geology opposes it. There does not exist in the world gold enough for that purpose. The true money metal is silver Locke was right in saying 'Silver is the instrument and measure of commerce in all the civilised and trading parts of the world;' and Bagehot expressed the same opinion before the Silver Commission of 1876 (Question 1,389): 'Silver is the normal currency of the world.' In proportion as the people become wealthy and industrious, they require more and more gold, so that the diminishing production of gold will be barely sufficient for the use of the arts and manufactures, and the yellow metal will disappear, little by little, from circulation. At all times gold has been a subsidiary money-a money of luxury. It was a consequence of natural laws. Economical necessities will oblige men to submit to them. That which has passed since the date of the publication of Dr. Suess' book (1877) has plainly confirmed his predictions. Already the scarcity of gold has created an appearance of disquietude. One cannot be surprised at it, when one thinks of the small quantity of gold which is at man's disposal.

The total quantity of this metal produced since the discovery of America is calculated to be 1,400,000,000l. A learned professor of the University of Rome, Messedaglia (Storia e Statistica dei Metalli preziosi), has calculated that this sum, equivalent to 535 cubic mètres, would be sufficient only to cover the pavement under the cupola of the Pantheon or of St. Paul's with a bed of gold of 37 centimètres, or one foot in depth, and the annual production would add to it barely one centimètre. Of this quantity what remains under the form of money and ornaments? Perhaps one milliard sterling. M. Soetbeer shows that there exists as money in civilised countries (less India and the extreme East) 13,400,000,000 German marks (670,000,000%.) of gold, and 8,400,000,000 marks (420,000,000l.) of silver. That which singularly aggravates the economical situation is that the world's currency, which was maintained yearly, till 1873, by gold and by silver united-that is to say, by a total value of 35,000,000l. sterling-is now to be kept up by gold alone, of which the production does not attain more than 20,000,000l. each year. Trade consumes certainly from twelve to fourteen millions sterling; for official reports show that manufactures and arts require, in the United States, 10,000,000 dollars or two millions sterling, the same amount in

France (54,000,000 francs in 1878), and even more in England: that is, six or seven millions for these three countries alone. India takes away every year between two and three millions, so what remains for the requirement of the coinage in all the civilised nations? We must not forget that, according to M. Soetbeer's calculations, there has been coined in the last twenty-five years, from 1851 to 1875, 800,000,000l. sterling gold, and 440,000,000l. silver. Deduct what you will for re-coinage, there remains certainly, taken yearly by the mint, a sum immensely superior to the four or five millions gold that the arts leave for the monetary requirements.

Even supposing that the absorption of gold by America will suddenly stop-and it amounted in 1879-1880 to $75,891,391, and in 1880-1881 to $91,168,650, or for these two years nearly 34 millions sterling, that is the third of all the gold coin of England-it is beyond all doubt that if silver remains proscribed, there will not be gold enough for the monetary and industrial uses of Europe. Already, at the very moment these lines are written, the gold scarcity begins to be seriously felt on the money market. The Stock Exchange is looking with anxiety to every withdrawal of metal from the Bank. What the late Mr. Bagehot used to call 'Apprehension Point' is very near. Soon the sentiment of living under the perpetual fear of lacking the breathing air of commerce-i.e. of the means of exchange-will become intolerable, long before the exhaustion of the gold washings predicted by Dr. Suess will be realised.

It becomes every day more evident that the dream of using gold alone as universal money is a mere impossibility. The two precious metals, gold and silver, are not even sufficient for the rapidly growing wants of trade and luxury throughout the world.

EMILE DE LAveleye.

THE

NINETEENTH

CENTURY.

No. LVI.-OCTOBER 1881.

IRELAND AND THE LAND ACT.

THE Land Bill having passed, and the long controversy which led up to it being closed, the present seems a fitting time to take an impartial survey of its probable results. Will it injure the landowner? will it satisfy the tenant? will it put an end to sedition, intimidation, and turbulence? will it disarm the Land League? will it take the sting out of the Home Rule agitation, or, on the contrary, serve as a weapon which may be used by Home Rulers against England and the legislative union? These are the questions which everybody interested in public affairs is asking, and to which the replies are more than usually discordant. No great measure has passed within my recollection as to the effect of which so little certainty was felt or even professed. There is no loud boasting on the side of those who have succeeded; no outcry of resentment and despair from those who have been worsted. Perplexity and doubt, rather than confidence, seem the predominant feelings. It was inevitable,' says one critic. It is a leap in the dark,' says another. It cannot make matters worse than they were,' is the consolation of a third. were bound to try something, and on the whole there seemed nothing else to try,' is perhaps the most common judgment. Very few speakers in the recent debates have claimed for the Act the merit of being absolutely just as between the classes affected. Nearly all Englishmen would agree that it has given the tenant more than he was in strict justice entitled to claim; but the necessity of dealing generously with him has been loudly insisted on, and such appeals VOL. X.-No. 56.

I I

6

We

are seldom wasted on English legislators-especially when the generosity displayed brings no charge on the English taxpayer.

In this perplexed and confused state of opinion, a few speculations on the prospect before us may have at least a chance of being received in the same purely critical spirit in which they are written. For as what is done cannot be undone, as the verdict is given and no new trial is possible, partisans on each side will be ready to make admissions which, while the battle was undecided, they would have considered as treason to their cause. Even naked truth is tolerated when no practical result can follow its utterance. There is a pleasing reaction from the excitement of conflict, in the indulgence of candour which costs nothing.

How will the Bill affect the landowners? That is the first question; and it is one to which no general answer can be given applicable to all classes of landowners, and to all parts of Ireland. The objects which men aim at when they become possessed of land in the British islands may be enumerated, I think, as follows: (1) political influence; (2) social importance, founded on territorial possession, the most visible and unmistakable form of wealth; (3) power exercised over tenantry; the pleasure of managing, directing, and improving, on the estate itself; (4) residential enjoyment, including what is called sport; (5) the money return-the rent.

Now, taking these severally, we may lay it down that in Ireland, in the last few years, the political influence of the landowner is practically extinct. He is not likely to adopt national (i.e. antiEnglish) ideas; and unless he does so his chance of being returned to Parliament is nil. I shall have more to say on this subject in another connection; but for the present it is enough to note that landlord influence in general politics cannot be interfered with by any legislation, for the sufficient reason that it has ceased to exist. Nor is the proprietor likely to lose in social dignity. The owner of 20,000, 30,000, or 50,000 acres is as great a personage in popular estimation as the possession of the soil can make him, whether those acres are leased or held by tenants-at-will. I do not know that it has been noticed in Parliament that during the last century, when certainly aristocratic and territorial dignity stood as high as they ever have done, most English estates, at least in the north of England, were let on leases for lives. The owner had virtually parted with all control over them for a term of fifty, sixty, or seventy years. The same, I believe, was the case in Ireland. Yet his position as a local magnate did not suffer in either country. If it is diminished in the Ireland of the present day, as probably it may be, the result will be due to other causes than the Land Bill of this year. Under the third head-power over tenantry-it is undeniable that he is called upon to make a considerable sacrifice. Over a tenant who pays his rent regularly, and does not violate the conditions of his holding, he