tout cela, and nothing is talked of but raising regiments and sending another army-I don't know whither, because, supposing a new army can be raised, which is a postulatum, it will be a little necessary to know whether we have New York, or Philadelphia, or Quebec; and though, probably, one or two of them-but I really do not know what I say, nor have I found any body on whose sleeve I pin my faith in these affairs. We have had assertion, and prophecy, and confidence, and all have been brought to shame, and none of them are ashamed; and so I refer you to the Chapter of Accidents.

The Parliament, when it shall meet, is to go into a great inquiry, which, I conclude, will end in nothing at all, or, rather, not end. The talk of the day is, that France has signed a treaty with the provincials, and the Stocks look pale upon it; but all these rumours only fill up the chinks of time, and will be forgotten when great events happen. By great events I mean foreign war and domestic calamity. We are on the high road to both. The present moment is only like the half-hour at the theatre before the play begins; the galleries are riotous, pelt the candle-snuffers, or bawl for the overture; when the curtain is drawn up, nobody thinks but of the tragedy.

We have had a great misfortune in our family; the Bishop of Exeter is dead, who married my brother's eldest daughter. She is left with four children and a very small provision indeed; but Sir Edward has acted nobly, and gives up to her an estate at Windsor of eight hundred a-year, and a house in town, and keeps her a coach. He has, indeed, been a most bountiful father always, and has not made his children wait for his death.

Jan. 7th.

I have received yours of the 10th of last month. You will have learnt before now that the total defeat of Washington was converted into a total defeat of Burgoyne, and it is very much the opinion of the City that the American war will soon be turned into a French one; but I doubt France will stay till we have not a regiment left in the island, which you know would save a great deal of blood.

Don't trouble your head any longer about Lady Lucy's having a son; they are the happiest who have no children.

We are not content with having lost America; we shall not have an army to defend England. Why does not Mrs. Anne Pitt return? She would find most people as mad as herself.

idea of the present Ministers becoming negotiators for peace and conciliation, as the greatest of all possible absurdities.-ED.

* Dr. Frederick Keppel, fourth son of William-Anne, second Earl of Albemarle; in 1754 appointed Canon of Windsor, and in 1762 promoted to the Bishoprick of Exeter. He married, in September 1758, Laura, the eldest of the three daughters of Sir Edward Walpole.-ED.

LETTER CCLXXVIII.

Feb. 6, 1778.

It is odd, that in the heat of a Parliamentary campaign, enlivened by a civil war, I should have nothing particular to tell you. The troops of the latter are gone into winter quarters. The others are in the field, and skirmish every day. If any of the generals are wounded, they do not own it. Some of the forces of the larger army have deserted to the enemy; and on Monday the numbers of the Opposition mounted to a hundred and sixty odd.* On the other hand, it is commonly believed, that the old general of the minority, Lord Chatham, is to command the King's forces. It is certain that there is a great coolness between him and General Rockinghamt, but I think that disagreement so much more beneficial to the Court; and I see so little advantage to be acquired by gaining an old commander without soldiers, so fractious, so unsettled, and so impracticable, that I shall wonder much if he is invited to take the lead. It might add to the present distractions, and could cure none.

As my opinions do not always agree with the majority any where, it is not mine that we are on the brink of a French war. It is needless to repeat my reasons; I have told you them before.

The Duke of Gloucester has again been out of order; but not nearly

* On Monday, the 2nd of February, Mr. Fox moved, in the Committee on the State of the Nation, "That no more of the Old corps be sent out of the nation." No reply was made to his speech, and the question was negatived by 259 against 165. The motion excited much interest out of doors. At an early hour a vast multitude assembled in the lobby and environs of the House: but, not being able to gain admission by entreaty or interest, they forced their way into the gallery, in spite of the door-keepers. The House, considering the intrusion a high breach of privilege, directly ordered strangers to withdraw. A partial clearance of the gal lery, however, only took place: the gentlemen withdrew, but the ladies, through courtesy, were suffered to remain. Upon which Governor Johnstone observed, that if the motion for clearing the House was a supposed propriety to keep the state of the nation concealed, it was necessary that all strangers should withdraw. "This," says Mr. Hatsell," produced a violent ferment for a long time, the ladies showing great reluctance to comply with the orders of the House; so that, by their perseverance, business was interrupted for nearly two hours: but, at length, they too were compelled to submit."-ED.

The coolness between these distinguished statesmen, here referred to by Walpole, certainly existed. In the very last letter ever addressed by Lord Chatham to the Marquis of Rockingham, he had urged the necessity of making a firm stand for the sovereignty of England over America: to which letter the Marquis gave this reply "What your lordship considers as a fundamental point, is one which I can by no means think a sine quá non, in a treaty to restore peace and friendship between Great Britain and America. My line in politics has ever been, not to hold out flattering expectations to the people, when I was not able to see the probability of their being accomplished. I conceive that America will never again assent to this country's having actual power within that continent. I cannot, therefore, so far betray my trust to the public as to act as if that was practicable, which I thought otherwise."-ED.

só ill, I think, as some thought, or as I have seen him. He still coughs a good deal. His constitution is always alarming, and one must not trust too much to the wonderful recoveries he has had; yet perhaps frequent advertisements are not contrary, lest his youth and courage should make him presume too much.

These paragraphs are the quintessence of my letter, and it ought to end here, were it a decent quantity: yet why should one write more than one has to say? A letter tells you I am not negligent, though perhaps I grow lazy. I never was good at detailing. The event of things is all I mind; which I own does not help conversation. I leave you ignorant of nothing decisive. The present inquiries in Parliament into the conduct of the war I look on as a tale of a tub. The Ministers give themselves up to be teazed, more to amuse their antagonists than inform them; and the latter are pleased with making speeches. But can all this make peace, or carry on the war? Neither but the inability of making either will produce other-guess events, and they will be serious.

These are my politics, which I adopt from no side, and preach to nobody. They are of not much use even to myself; for I am not of an age to trouble myself about what is to happen. When one talks of the times, one must think something; and, isolé as I am, it is more natural to look at the affairs of nations than at the feathers and fashions of the young, though perhaps as grave a subject. I would neither be boyish nor morose. Age, without any study on my part, has given me great indifference, and yet has been so good as to leave me spirits enough to be tranquil and to amuse myself. It is enough, not to wish to live or die.

LETTER CCLXXIX.

Arlington Street, Feb. 18, 1778.

I Do not know how to word the following letter; how to gain credit with you! How shall I intimate to you, that you must lower your topsails, waive your imperial dignity, and strike to the colours. of the thirteen United Provinces of America? Do not tremble, and imagine that Washington has defeated General Howe, and driven him out of Philadelphia; or that Gates has taken another army; or that Portsmouth is invested by an American fleet. No: no military new event has occasioned this revolution. The sacrifice has been made on the altar of Peace. Stop again: peace is not made, it is only implored, and, I fear, only on this side of the Atlantic. In short, yesterday, February 17th, a most memorable era, Lord North opened his Conciliatory Plan,-no partial, no collusive one. In as few

*"A dull, melancholy silence," says the Annual Register, "for some time succeeded to Lord North's speech. It had been heard with profound attention, but

words as I can use, it solicits peace with the States of America: it haggles on no terms; it acknowledges the Congress, or any body that pleases to treat; it confesses errors, misinformation, ill-success, and impossibility of conquest; it disclaims taxation, desires commerce, hopes for assistance, allows the independence of America, not verbally, yet virtually, and suspends hostilities till June 1779. It does a little more: not verbally, but virtually it confesses that the Opposition have been in the right from the beginning to the end.*

The warmest American cannot deny but these gracious condescensions are ample enough to content that whole continent; and yet, my friend, such accommodating facility had one defect,-it came too late. The treaty between the high and mighty States and France is signed; and, instead of peace, we must expect war with the high allies. The French army is come to the coast, and their officers here are recalled.

The House of Commons embrace the plan, and voted it, nemine contradicente. It is to pass both Houses with a rapidity that will do every thing but over take time past. All the world is in astonishment. As my letter will not set out till the day after to-morrow, I shall have time to tell you better what is thought of this amazing step.

Feb. 20.

In sooth I cannot tell you what is thought. Nobody knows what to think. To leap at once from an obstinacy of four years to a total concession of every thing; to stoop so low, without hopes of being

without a single mark of approbation to any part, from any description of men, or any particular man in the House. Astonishment, dejection, and fear overclouded the whole assembly. Although the Minister had declared, that the sentiments he expressed that day had been those which he always entertained, it is certain that few or none had understood him in that manner; and he had been represented to the nation at large, as the person in it the most tenacious of those parliamentary rights which he now resigned, and the most remote from the submissions which he now proposed to make. It was generally, therefore, concluded, that something more extraordinary and alarming had happened than yet appeared, which was of force to produce such an apparent change in measures, principles, and arguments."-ED.

* Gibbon, in a letter written on the same day to Mr. Holroyd, says," Opposi tion, after expressing their doubts whether the lance of Achilles could cure the wound which it had inflicted, could not refuse their assent to the principles of conduct which they themselves had always recommended. I do not find that the world, that is, a few people whom I happen to converse with, are much inclined to praise Lord North's ductibility of temper. In the service of next Friday you will, however, take notice of the injunction given by the Liturgy: And all the people shall say after the Minister, Turn us again, O Lord, and so shall we be turned.'”—ED.

The Marquis of Granby, in a letter to Lord Chatham, of the same date, states, that "in the course of the debate Mr. Fox informed the House, that a report strongly obtained, that within ten days France had actually signed a treaty with the Americans, acknowledging their independence, and entering into an alliance with them: the Ministers remained totally silent, until Sir George Saville pressed the question to Lord North in so direct and positive a manner, that at last he confessed that he had received the same intelligence, though not officially, and that therefore he could neither affirm nor deny the authority of the account.'"-ED.

forgiven-who can understand such a transformation? I must leave you in all your wonderment; for the cloud is not dispersed. When it shall be, I doubt it will discover no serene prospect! All that remains certain is, that America is not only lost, but given up. We must no longer give ourselves Continental airs! I fear even our trident will find it has lost a considerable prong.

I have lived long, but never saw such a day as last Tuesday! From the first, I augured ill of this American war; yet do not suppose that I boast of my penetration. Far was I from expecting such a conclusion! Conclusion!-y sommes nous ? Acts of Parliament have made a war, but cannot repeal one. They have provoked-not terrified; and Washington and Gates have respected the Speaker's mace no more than Oliver Cromwell did.

You shall hear as events arise. I disclaim all sagacity, and pretend to no foresight. It is not an Englishman's talent. Even the second-sight of the Scots has proved a little purblind.

Have you heard that Voltaire is actually in Paris ?* Perhaps soon you will learn French news earlier than I can.

What scenes my letters to you have touched on for eight-andthirty years! I arrived here at the eve of the termination of my father's happy reign. The Rebellion, as he foresaw, followed; and much disgrace. Another war ensued, with new disgraces. And then broke forth Lord Chatham's sun; and all was glory and extensive empire. Nor tranquillity nor triumph are our lot now! The womb of time is not with child of a mouse, but adieu! I shall probably write again before you have digested half the meditations this letter will have conjured up..

LETTER CCLXXX.

Arlington Street, March 5, 1778. YOUR letter, may dear sir, which I received two days ago, is dated the 7th of last month; and you there speak with great distrust of seeing Lady Lucy again. I fear your forebodings were too well founded; for it is said here that she is actually dead.† I had heard so ten days ago, but flattered myself that it was not true. Now I see it mentioned in the papers. As you only just knew her enough to love and lament her, I am sorry you ever did see her! Your

* Madame du Deffand had written to Walpole on the 10th-" Voltaire arrived here yesterday, at four in the afternoon, with his niece Madame Denis. I wrote him a short note, to which he has returned this answer :-'J' arrive mort, et je ne veux ressusciter que pour me jetter aux genoux de Madame la Marquise du Deffand.'"-ED.

Lady Lucy Mann died in Italy, on the 7th of January.